All posts by Frank Elbers

European Union, Middle East and North Africa, Refugees, Syrian refugee crisis, Turkey

Did the EU-Turkey Refugee Deal Turn Out To Be a Band Aid?

In early March 2016, after months of negotiations, the EU’s 28 heads of states reached an agreement with the Turkish government to slow the refugee influx into Europe. The so-called 1:1 plan — for each undocumented migrant Turkey takes back from Greece, the EU would take one refugee from Turkey — went into effect on March 20, 2016. Under the terms of the deal, the EU would give Turkey six billion euros ($6.7 billion) to support hosting refugees and revisit its stalled attempt to join the EU.

Read full blog at Muftah.

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Russian Federation

For the Love of Putin

Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin explained in a blog why he intended to vote for Putin — as he explained, despite falling oil prices and sanctions, Russia is back and moving forward thanks to Putin. While the Central Election Committee called the move “unethical,” it considered Sobyanin’s endorsement “a recognition of his love for the president” rather than illegal political campaigning.

Read full blog at Muftah.

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Baltics, Bulgaria, Eastern Europe, Gender equality

Treaty aimed at combating violence against women is under fire in Eastern Europe

There is a new spectre haunting Eastern Europe. It is called the Council of Europe’s Convention on Preventing and Combating Violence Against Women and Domestic Violence. From Riga to Sofia, resistance against this so-called Istanbul Convention has been mounting in the past few months.

Read full blog at Muftah.

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Blog, Middle East and North Africa, Western Sahara

Afrika’s laatste kolonie

Smara vluchtelingenkamp, zuid-west Algerije – “Alle bevrijdingsbewegingen hebben gewonnen”, zegt Fatma Mehdi. “Wij zullen winnen.” Mehdi, voorzitster van de Nationale Sahrawi Vrouwenvakbond, reageert op een uitspraak van het Europese Hof van Justitie dat onlangs verklaarde dat het door Marokko bezette Westelijke Sahara niet onder het handelsverdrag tussen de EU en Marokko valt. Dat stuk land is welbeschouwd Afrika’s laatste kolonie. Nadat kolonisator Spanje zich in 1975 terugtrok, volgde een gewapende strijd tussen buurland Marokko en de inheemse Sahrawis geleid door het Polisario Front. Onder leiding vande VN kwam er in 1991 een wapenstilstand. Het grootste gedeelte van de Westelijke Sahara staat onder controle van Marokko –de “zuidelijke provincies”– en is door een 2.700 kilometer-lange muur en mijnenvelden gescheiden van de rest van Westelijke Sahara.

Ik ben in Smara, een van de vijf in de vluchtelingenkampen in de woestijn van zuid-west Algerije waar zo’n 130,000 Sahrawis sinds 1976 hun toevlucht hebben gevonden. Veel huishoudens in de vluchtelingenkampen zijn afhankelijk van contacten met Spaanse families om te kunnen overleven, want er is weinig steun van de VN en ander humanitaire organisaties. De Europese uitspraak kwam op 27 februari j.l., ook de dag waarop 42 jaar geleden de Sahrawische Arabische Democratische Republiek werd uitgeroepen door Polisario.

“Dit is een grote overwinning voor de Sahrawis”, vertelt Beccy Allen. Allen werkt als leerkracht Engels in het Boujdour vluchtelingenkamp en is betrokken bij de Western Sahara Campaign UK, de ngo die het verdrag tussen Marokko en de EU aan het Europese Hof voorlegde. Western Sahara Campaign UK is onderdeel van een internationale solidariteitsbeweging die zich vooral op richt op boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS), een –geweldloze– strategie die ook steeds vaker in de Palestijnse gebieden wordt toegepast en uiteindelijk tot de ondergang van het apartheidsregime in Zuid-Afrika leidde. Mehdi: “Wij willen geweldloosheid, niet terug naar de oorlog.”

Zusterorganisatie Western Sahara Resource Watch in Brussel probeert al jaren investeerders te overtuigen geen aandelen te kopen van bedrijven die fosfaat van het Marokkaanse staatsbedrijf OCP kopen. Negentig procent van de wereldwijde fosfaatreserve, onmisbaar in de productie van kunstmest, ligt in de mijnen rond Boukraa, Westelijke Sahara. Op verzoek van Polisario –de regering in ballingschap geleid door Brahim Galli –werd onlangs een schip met fosfaat bestemd voor Nieuw-Zeeland aan de ketting gelegd in Port Elizabeth (Zuid-Afrika), waar de lading in de komende maanden per opbod wordt verkocht en de opbrengst naar de Sahrawis gaat. Olie, vis, fosfaat en toerisme zijn grote inkomstenbronnen voor Marokko, en niet geheel toevallig zijn die te vinden in de Westelijke Sahara en de kustgebieden daarvan.

De laaste directe onderhandelingen tussen Polisario en Marokko vonden in 2012 plaats. Marokko heeft al jaren een voorstel voor zelfbestuur voor de Sahrawis onder Marokkaanse vlag op de plank liggen, Polisario neemt alleen een referendum voor onafhankelijkheid serieus, zoals dat is afgesproken bij de wapenstilstand in 1991 en nog altijd door de VN-vredesmissie MINURSO moet worden georganiseerd.

Met de uitspraak van het Europese Hof en de groeiende BDS-beweging lijkt er voorzichtig druk te ontstaan om het 42-jarig conflict op te lossen. Ook vanuit de VN is er extra aandacht: zo benoemde VN-secretaris generaal António Guterres afgelopen december Horst Köhler als zijn Personal Envoy for Western Sahara. Köhler heeft inmiddels met de meeste betrokken partijen gesproken: Polisario, Algerije, Zuid-Afrika, Frankrijk, de Afrikaanse Unie; vanuit Rabat komen signalen dat er binnenkort ook een gesprek komt tussen Köhler en de Marokkaanse minister van buitenlandse zaken Nasser Bourita. “Het laat zien dat de VN nog altijd belang hechten aan ons probleem”, zegt Mehdi.

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Lebanon, Middle East and North Africa

Lebanon’s prime minister puts resignation on hold

BEIRUT — Prime minister Saad Hariri returned to Lebanon today after announcing his resignation from Riyadh more than two weeks ago. To the surprise of many he suspended his resignation and called for national dialogue. My analysis for Deutsche Welle News.

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Blog, Middle East and North Africa, Western Sahara

Does Morocco rejoining the African Union seal the fate of Africa’s last colony?

BEIRUT — After an absence of 33 years Morocco rejoined the African Union (AU), weakening the prospect of Western Sahara, Africa’s last colony, ever becoming independent. Both the Moroccan government and representatives of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) welcomed the decision. Yet the promised, UN-mandated referendum on the independence of Western Sahara is now more unlikely to happen than ever.

“Morocco wants to work from the independence to get Western Sahara expelled from the AU and once and for all lay to rest the whole issue of Western Sahara and its claims to independence,” Liesl Louw-Vaudran, an analyst at the Institute of Security Studies in South Africa who has been following the AU for 20 years, told Newsweek. “I don’t think there’s anyone who thinks that total independence for Western Sahara is still on the cards.”

Simon Allison, who covers Africa for the Daily Maverick, believes that Morocco’s all-out diplomatic offensive to improve relations with the African continent may give African leaders — think particularly of Algeria, Nigeria and South Africa — new leverage to move forward on the referendum on self-determination. Yet he concludes: “That’s the optimistic take. It’s perhaps more plausible, however, that thanks to Morocco’s deep purse and political muscle, Western Sahara has just lost a whole lot of its African allies – making its dreams of independence less likely than ever before.”

SADR president and Polisario leader Brahim Ghali said in an interview that Morocco’s rejoining the African Union does not change the situation fundamentally. “We always look for the peaceful way” to resolve the conflict, Ghali told AFP at a Sahrawi refugee camp in Tindouf, southwestern Algeria. “But all options remain open,” he said, alluding to the possibility of a return to armed struggle.

The situation in Western Sahara can be compared with the Occupied Palestinian Territories. All the talk over the years of pan-Arab and pan-African solidarity with the Palestinians and Sahrawis has translated into very little action. Israel and Morocco, with their powerful economies, powerful armies, and powerful Western allies — hold all the cards.

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Baltics, Blog, European Union, Refugees, Syrian refugee crisis

Tiny Baltics and France lead the way in EU relocation scheme

RIGA / TARTU — Under the EU relocation scheme Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have now accepted 455 asylum-seekers from Greece and Italy since the beginning of last year. Although France (2,702), the Netherlands (1,216) and Germany (1,099) have received the most asylum-seekers to date under the program, by accepting the 455 — mostly Syrian — asylum-seekers the three Baltic states have actually carried a greater burden given their size (only France accepted more as a percentage of its population).

The EU relocation scheme is supposed to relocate asylum-seekers from Greece and Italy to other EU countries. It just hit the 10,000 mark last week, with 150,000 more to go by 27 September 2017. If successful, and that is still a very big if, the EU program would relief the 60,000-odd refugees that are currently stuck in Greece and suffering under terrible winter conditions, as well as another 70,000 from Italy. But implementation is slow and there is a lot resistance from governments and voters, aside from logistical challenges.

That the Baltics are now leading the way in the EU relocation program is quite astonishing, to say the least. Resistance to the arrival of refugees from Syria has been strong and the Baltic governments only reluctantly agreed — unlike other post-communist states like Hungary, Poland and Slovakia — to be part of the relocation mechanism. And as recent as last August the European Commission was critical of the strict admission requirements that the Baltic governments set for war refugees from Syria and Iraq seeking relocation.

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Baltics, Blog

Laimīgu Jauno gadu!

RIGA — Laimīgu Jauno gadu! I’ll be spending January in Latvia and Lithuania where I will be reporting several stories on emigration and the refugee crisis. I will also be preparing for courses I teach this spring in the Gender and Development in Humanitarian Assistance program at Lebanese American University in Beirut.

2017 will be a critical year for the European Union’s relocation scheme, which aims to relocate 160,000 asylum seekers that are stuck in camps and reception centres in Greece and Italy to other EU member states. You may remember that enthusiasm  in the EU for this quota mechanism has been lukewarm at best — with Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the United Kingdom not participating in the program. And the numbers show it: on 19 December only 9,356 out of the 160,000 asylum seekers from Syrian, Eritrea, Iraq had found refuge in the EU. Although Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are only expected to have accepted 1,481 asylum seekers by the end of 2017, out of the 160,000 for the whole EU, progress towards this goal in the Baltic states in the first months of 2017 may be indicative for the success of the EU relocation scheme as a whole. I’ll be speaking with policy makers, Baltic residents, and with refugees who were accepted last year and who are trying to integrate in their new adopted homes.

While 2017 may well be a crucial year for tackling the European refugee crisis, Latvia and Lithuania are continuing to face an emigration crisis. Ever since the  dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, young and highly skilled professionals have been leaving the newly independent Baltic states in large numbers. (Estonia is the exception; since 2015 immigration exceeds emigration, which provoked a response from 39,399 Estonian citizens.) Although emigration has been slowing in recent years, researchers have found that since the 2008 financial crisis more women aged 40-65 — some of them grandmothers — are moving abroad in order to salvage their economic well-being and support their multi-generation families. This is a trend also seen in other post-communist countries like Romania and Ukraine. In the next few weeks I’ll be interviewing both migration researchers and women who have left Latvia and Romania for Guernsey, Germany, Ireland, United Kingdom, Italy and Spain to seek better lives.

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Blog, Lebanon, Middle East and North Africa, Migration, Refugees, Syrian refugee crisis

Migrant population in Middle East more than doubles

BEIRUT — The number of migrants in the Middle East has more than doubled since 2005, according to a new report by the Pew Research Center.

Migrant workers, asylum seekers, refugees and internally displaced persons increased from around 25 million in 2005 to 54 million in 2015. This 120% increase is much higher than in North America and Europe (both around 20%) over the same period despite the arrival of 1.3 million asylum seekers in Europe last year, of whom many were from the Middle East. Forced and voluntary migration in the Middle East also grew at a faster pace than  in Africa (90% increase), the Asia-Pacific (26%), and Latin America and the Caribbean (77%).

The share of migrants of the region’s population grew from 7% in 2005 to approximately 13% in 2015. In other words, one-in-ten people currently living the Middle East is either an international migrant or displaced. The Pew Research Center based its analysis on data from United Nations agencies.

This growth of migration in the Middle East is mainly caused by two factors: conflict and economic opportunity.

About half of the Middle East's 23 million displaced migrants lived in Syria or Iraq in 2015Armed conflict in Syria, Iraq and Yemen has displaced millions. This forced displacement accounts for the majority (60%) of the growth of the migrant population. The aftermath of the invasion of Iraq and subsequent civil war, the war in Syria since 2011, the rise of Daesh and the various conflicts in Yemen since the Arab Uprising had (internally) displaced 23 people by the end of 2015, about half of them living in Syria or Iraq, followed by Jordan, Yemen, Turkey and Lebanon.

About six-in-ten of the Middle East's non-displaced international migrant lived in Saudi Arabia and UAE in 2015

Economic opportunity has attracted millions of migrant workers — mostly from countries outside the region — particularly to the oil-rich Gulf States: Saudi Arabia (10.2 million), United Arab Emirates (8 million), Kuwait (2.9 million) and Oman (1.8 million). But also Israel and Lebanon continue to attract migrants.

The figures from the Pew Research Center show how war and armed conflict have wreaked havoc on the region: the portion of migrants living in the Middle East that were not displaced fell from 78% to 57% in the past decade.

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Baltics, Blog, European Union, Refugees, Syrian refugee crisis

European Commission critical of Baltic states for admission requirements asylum seekers

RIGA – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have drawn the ire of the European Commission over their reluctance to host refugees under the EU relocation programme, the LNT commercial TV channel reported Friday.

“There are only two criteria based on which someone can be refused asylum or relocation within Europe,” Kristīne Liepiņa, spokesperson for the European Commission Delegation in Latvia, told LNT. “One reason is that this person poses a threat to other people’s security, namely, to local society. And another reason, of course, is if this person poses a threat to international security.”

Yet to date Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have only accepted refugee families with children and educated refugees with foreign language skills and work experience.

The Baltic states between them are expected to accept 1,481 asylum seekers by the end of 2017 as part of the EU’s relocation scheme. All EU member states together agreed to take 160,000 refugees that are stranded in Greece and Italy by that date.

In its fifth report on the progress of the EU relocation and resettlement programme, the Commission wrote last month: “During the reporting period, a number of Member States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) have rejected relocation requests without providing substantiated reasons or on grounds other than those specified in the Council Decisions on relocation.” The previous, fourth report (June) also singled out the Baltic countries, among others, for “[…] lack of motivation of rejections of relocation requests [which] goes against the letter of the Council Decisions on relocation and the spirit of loyal cooperation.”

This is the first time, however, that a representative of the European Commission openly criticises the Baltic governments. So far the EU Commissioner for Migration, Home Affairs and Citizenship, Dimitris Avramopoulos, has only encouraged member states to do more. During the presentation of the last progress report he spoke of a “positive trend, but more efforts are needed.”

Latvia’s governing Unity party believes that the EU report is a testament to the fact that Latvia takes the application verification process very serious. “Our system of domestic affairs staff are doing their job well. […] The criteria should not be changed,” Lolita Čigāne (Unity), member of the Saeima and chairperson of the European Affairs Committee, told LNT in response to the criticism.

Ironically, the criticism comes at a time when all three Baltic countries have started accepting substantially more refugees. On Friday, Lithuania welcomed 11 Syrian refugees from Greece under the EU deal, bringing the total to 73 so far. Earlier last week, a court in Latvia granted five Iraqis refugee status and 12 asylum seekers from Eritrea and Syria subsidiary (temporary) protection. And two Syrian refugee families arrived in Estonia from Greece at the end of July.

The next progress report of the European Commission is expected in September.

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