BEIRUT — After an absence of 33 years Morocco rejoined the African Union (AU), weakening the prospect of Western Sahara, Africa’s last colony, ever becoming independent. Both the Moroccan government and representatives of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) welcomed the decision. Yet the promised, UN-mandated referendum on the independence of Western Sahara is now more unlikely to happen than ever.

“Morocco wants to work from the independence to get Western Sahara expelled from the AU and once and for all lay to rest the whole issue of Western Sahara and its claims to independence,” Liesl Louw-Vaudran, an analyst at the Institute of Security Studies in South Africa who has been following the AU for 20 years, told Newsweek. “I don’t think there’s anyone who thinks that total independence for Western Sahara is still on the cards.”

Simon Allison, who covers Africa for the Daily Maverick, believes that Morocco’s all-out diplomatic offensive to improve relations with the African continent may give African leaders — think particularly of Algeria, Nigeria and South Africa — new leverage to move forward on the referendum on self-determination. Yet he concludes: “That’s the optimistic take. It’s perhaps more plausible, however, that thanks to Morocco’s deep purse and political muscle, Western Sahara has just lost a whole lot of its African allies – making its dreams of independence less likely than ever before.”

SADR president and Polisario leader Brahim Ghali said in an interview that Morocco’s rejoining the African Union does not change the situation fundamentally. “We always look for the peaceful way” to resolve the conflict, Ghali told AFP at a Sahrawi refugee camp in Tindouf, southwestern Algeria. “But all options remain open,” he said, alluding to the possibility of a return to armed struggle.

The situation in Western Sahara can be compared with the Occupied Palestinian Territories. All the talk over the years of pan-Arab and pan-African solidarity with the Palestinians and Sahrawis has translated into very little action. Israel and Morocco, with their powerful economies, powerful armies, and powerful Western allies — hold all the cards.